AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly Oil Market Report that global oil supply will not be able to fully meet demand levels this year. According to the report, conflicts in the Middle East have seriously disrupted oil production and exports, and the halt of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has so far caused a cumulative reduction of over one billion barrels in global supply. Additionally, over 14 million barrels per day of oil exports from Persian Gulf countries have been taken offline due to these disruptions.
The international body predicted that in 2026, oil supply will be about 1.78 million barrels per day less than global demand, whereas previous estimates had indicated a supply surplus. According to the report, global oil production may also decline by about 3.9 million barrels per day this year, a significant drop compared to previous forecasts.
Another section of the report stated that rising energy prices and slowing economic growth have also pressured global oil demand. The IEA has revised its forecast for the decline in global demand this year to about 420,000 barrels per day, announcing that price increases have directly affected global energy consumption.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy has also announced that the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain closed until late May, with a gradual resumption of ship traffic beginning in June. Concurrent with these developments, oil prices fell slightly after several days of increase, with Brent crude reaching about $106 per barrel. However, analysts predict that due to continued supply disruptions and declining global inventories, prices will remain at high levels in the coming months.
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